It’s been a fortnight since the world has been taken by storm as Russia went for an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air and sea. Tensions have been brewing in the region between Russia and Ukraine for a long, but it got escalated in early January of 2021 when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged US President Joe Biden to let Ukraine join NATO.
Look back into the Russian – Ukraine conflict
Russia and Ukraine have a long shared Slavic history under the Kievan Rus. And ever since it was a part of the Russian Empire until the Russian revolution led by Vladimir Lenin by which it emerged independent in 1921. But was later made a part of the larger Soviet Union.
Post the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine gained independence and became a globally recognized country. However, Russia always had a keen interest in keeping the country within its political and territorial reach.
The recent conflicts have a shorter history and it started when Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow. The protestors ousted him in what is known as the Revolution of Dignity. In return, Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and backed east Ukraine's separatist rebellion.
Soon after this, Russia attacked Donbas, the country's industrial heartland. Over 14,000 people lost their lives in this fight between the Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists. This aggression was concluded with the Minsk Agreement.
Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shown interest in joining the NATO and European Union which has alarmed Putin and he sees it as a security threat and challenge on Russia as it shares an extended geographical boundary with Ukraine.
How is Ukraine important for Russia?
- Ukraine is the second-largest country on the European continent next to Russia.
- It holds strategic trade ports and choke points for Russia in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.
- It shares the same Slavic cultural lineage and ties.
- Since the Soviet era, Ukraine has been a hub for commercial industries, factories and defence manufacturing.
What are the reasons for Russia’s current aggression?
- Geo-political factors and NATO:
Ukraine’s pro-European and pro-NATO stand has been skeptically viewed by Russia and it has warned Ukraine to back-off from their stand. NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that has been formed under the leadership of USA to counter socialistic and soviet ideology will remain as a security and political threat to Putin’s Russia, being a neighboring country.But the majority of the Ukrainian population believes otherwise and sees this as an opportunity to be a part of the European global community.
- Economic Factors:
Russia sought for Ukraine’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC), which is a free trade agreement that came into being in 2015.With its huge market and advanced agriculture and industrial output, Ukraine was supposed to play an important role. But Ukraine refused to join the agreement.
- The East and West divide among the Ukrainians:
The majority of the population, approximately 72% are ethnically Ukrainian in origin and speaks Ukrainian. They stand for a sovereign and independent nation and wants to be a part of EU and NATO.
However, the Eastern Ukrainians are majorly of Russian origin who have a pro-Russian stand and demands for Russian governance.
Implications of the war:
- Stock markets across the world have seen rampant decline and economic repercussions of these are yet to be seen.
- Oil prices have crossed $100 per barrel, and JP Morgan has estimated it to reach over $150 if the situation persists.
- Gold prices will see a huge leap as it’s a more stable means than shares and currencies.
- Currency values in varied countries will take a hit, as investors will go only for stable currencies.
Where does India stand?
- India has so far abstained from voting at the UNSC against the Russian aggression over Ukraine.
- India has not chosen a side yet, as both Russia and US (who leads NATO) are both strategic partners of India in trade and defence.
- India has called for “a peaceful resolution of the situation through sustained diplomatic efforts for long-term peace and stability in the region and beyond”.
- Presence of the strong Indian diaspora in Ukraine. Over 20,000 students and professionals are living in Ukraine and evacuating them safely are among our major concern.
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